• UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Softball: Gauchos Split Final Road Games at Hawai'i https://t.co/CpEDdmmhVc
    8 hours 46 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Gauchos are live on @ESPN3 ! WATCH >>> https://t.co/io6ZzYs9Hg https://t.co/BEO8wTxv62
    13 hours 53 min ago
  • ucsantabarbara twitter avatar
    Congrats to Leah Foltz for winning the #UCSB Grad Slam! Now she moves onto the UC-wide competition in SF on May 4th! https://t.co/kVqCtOTWb7
    20 hours 46 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Former @UCSB_Baseball LHP Dom Mazza speaks with his hometown paper after throwing a perfecto this week! https://t.co/GPc3B3qL9g
    21 hours 6 min ago
  • ArtsandLectures twitter avatar
    Watch pianist #MurrayPerahia's breathtaking and imaginative performance, tonight at 7PM at UCSB Campbell Hall!… https://t.co/M83EeA6Y53
    23 hours 52 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Softball: Hawai'i Tops UCSB 5-1 in Gauchos' Final Road Series Opener https://t.co/ejf0MWM1g0
    1 day 7 hours ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Gauchos Sweep Past UCI 4-0 https://t.co/WFwbxDV8eA
    1 day 9 hours ago
  • ucsantabarbara twitter avatar
    We're happy to see you back, alumni! Don't miss the great events we have this weekend. #AllGauchoReunion… https://t.co/Sbz4iirr7i
    1 day 13 hours ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Women's Tennis: Cal Poly 0, UC Santa Barb. 4 (Final) No.2 UCSB blanks No.7 Cal Poly in Big West Quarterfinal 4-0 https://t.co/m4kdACQFo5
    1 day 13 hours ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    .@UCSB_Baseball vs. UC Riverside on @ESPN3 is live now! Watch here >>> https://t.co/QJMvNLa0mQ
    1 day 13 hours ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    WWP: Defending Big West Champs Defeated by No. 12 LBSU in Another Overtime Match https://t.co/XIO3RJdo9p
    1 day 14 hours ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Top-Seeded UCSB Set to Host Big West Golf Championship at Sandpiper GC https://t.co/SyXPKB2Ur5
    1 day 15 hours ago
  • UCSBLibrary twitter avatar
    RT @ForestSways: CEMA poster preservation for primary source research. #Chicanohertiage @Marikhasmanyan @UCSBLibrary #sca17 https://t.co/M…
    1 day 17 hours ago
  • UCSBLibrary twitter avatar
    @AmldavisAnn We're glad you're interested in using, please contact (805) 893-3062 or @library.ucsb.edu">special@library.ucsb.edu for m… https://t.co/fwAVOMoWyB
    1 day 17 hours ago
  • UCSB_GradPost twitter avatar
    CPT F-1 Visa workshop for international students on May 11 https://t.co/l6xZEndRVl #UCSB #ucsbgradpost
    1 day 17 hours ago

UCSB ECONOMIST INTERPRETS BUDGET FORECAST, INTEREST RATE INCREASE

Thursday, July 1, 1999 - 17:00
Santa Barbara, CA

President Clinton projected Monday that U.S. budget surpluses would reach $5.9 trillion by the year 2015, enough to pay off the national debt and pump new life into Social Security and Medicare.

And on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve bumped the key interest rate .25 percent to 5.0 percent.

What does it all mean?

Henning Bohn, professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara,

can help us all figure it out.

Regarding Clinton's rosy projections -- or anyone else's -- Bohn advises a bit of skepticism.

"We should take all these long-range forecasts with a little grain of salt,'' he said.

Recent history teaches us that, Bohn said.

"If we look back five or 10 years, everyone was predicting huge deficits for many, many years to come," he said.

With the United States enjoying the second-longest growth spurt in its history, those predictions obviously did not hold true.

And it is unlikely the latest ones will either, Bohn said.

"The whole outlook in Washington is pretty optimistic," Bohn said.

"They all say that growth will continue.

There is no forecast of recession in any of these projections. ... But it would be unheard of if we didn't have a

recession over the next 15 years."

Even if the Clinton numbers wind up right on the mark, Bohn finds itunlikely the surplus will be used to pay off our national debt.

"Knowing politicians, they will find some way to spend it," he said.

Bohn said the quarter-point rise in interest rates is a good thing.

"The message they are sending is that they are serious about fighting inflation and they are willing to do whatever they need to do," he said.

Bohn can be reached for comment on these and other stories regarding U.S. economics by calling Bill Schlotter at the Office of Public Affairs (893-8735).