• UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    What a way to start off the season! @UCSBMensSoccer tops No.5 Stanford 1-0 Friday. RECAP >>> http://t.co/gPhjHwqFP0 http://t.co/z7Z90RLG5D
    10 hours 39 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    The Gauchos start the 2015 season off in style, hold No. 8 Stanford scoreless to win 1-0. @UCSBMensSoccer first win over Stanford since 2004
    11 hours 48 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Stanford trying desperately to get on the board but UCSB's backline can't be beat. Gauchos lead 1-0 with 5 minutes to go
    11 hours 55 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Ahinga Selemani beats his defender to set up Geoffrey Acheampong beautifully in the box, but the lefty's shot goes wide of the post
    12 hours 22 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Stanford with a pair of good chances with just under 30 minutes to go but UCSB still finds a way to keep them off the board and lead 1-0
    12 hours 27 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    .@UCSBMensSoccer leading No. 8 Stanford 1-0 at the half thanks to a goal by who else, Nick DePuy. Great first half for the Gauchos
    12 hours 55 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    GOAL! Seo-In Kim sends a cross far post and Nick DePuy heads it in to put the Gauchos up 1-0 with 3 minutes left in the half
    13 hours 3 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Women's Soccer: San Jose State 1, UC Santa Barbara 1 (Final - 2OT) UCSB, San Jose State Battle to 1-1 Tie http://t.co/KolrGPE4AY
    13 hours 16 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Big save by Vom Steeg to keep the game scoreless! 25 min left in 1st half @UCSBMensSoccer
    13 hours 28 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Stanford has the advantage in the run of play through 10 minutes but it's still 0-0. @UCSBMensSoccer
    13 hours 36 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    WVB: UCSB Opens Season with Back-to-Back Sweeps! #GoGauchos http://t.co/yye1PtugDW
    14 hours 4 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Heres UCSB's starting lineup against Stanford: Vom Steeg, Quezada, Strong, Backus, Jome, Espana, Feucht, Murphy, Acheampong, Selemani, DePuy
    14 hours 4 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    Don't miss @UCSBMensSoccer season opener against Stanford. Kickoff in 10 minutes!
    14 hours 12 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    @UCSBWomenSoccer ties San Jose St. 1-1 in home season opener behind early goal by Mallory Hromatko
    14 hours 22 min ago
  • UCSBgauchos twitter avatar
    RT @UCSB_Volleyball: Make that two sweeps on opening day! We topped UIW 3-0 and are now 2-0!… https://t.co/iybbM7N1tn
    14 hours 55 min ago

UCSB ECONOMIST INTERPRETS BUDGET FORECAST, INTEREST RATE INCREASE

Thursday, July 1, 1999 - 17:00
Santa Barbara, CA

President Clinton projected Monday that U.S. budget surpluses would reach $5.9 trillion by the year 2015, enough to pay off the national debt and pump new life into Social Security and Medicare.

And on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve bumped the key interest rate .25 percent to 5.0 percent.

What does it all mean?

Henning Bohn, professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara,

can help us all figure it out.

Regarding Clinton's rosy projections -- or anyone else's -- Bohn advises a bit of skepticism.

"We should take all these long-range forecasts with a little grain of salt,'' he said.

Recent history teaches us that, Bohn said.

"If we look back five or 10 years, everyone was predicting huge deficits for many, many years to come," he said.

With the United States enjoying the second-longest growth spurt in its history, those predictions obviously did not hold true.

And it is unlikely the latest ones will either, Bohn said.

"The whole outlook in Washington is pretty optimistic," Bohn said.

"They all say that growth will continue.

There is no forecast of recession in any of these projections. ... But it would be unheard of if we didn't have a

recession over the next 15 years."

Even if the Clinton numbers wind up right on the mark, Bohn finds itunlikely the surplus will be used to pay off our national debt.

"Knowing politicians, they will find some way to spend it," he said.

Bohn said the quarter-point rise in interest rates is a good thing.

"The message they are sending is that they are serious about fighting inflation and they are willing to do whatever they need to do," he said.

Bohn can be reached for comment on these and other stories regarding U.S. economics by calling Bill Schlotter at the Office of Public Affairs (893-8735).

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